While I’m sure even most recreational gamblers are aware of this fact, the one thing you must know is that Baccarat is what the casinos call a negative expectation game, as are almost 100% of casino game offerings. In other words, Baccarat is a game of chance, not skill. In general terms a negative expectation game of chance is one where there is nothing the player can do to put the mathematical odds of winning long-term in their favor, like with a person who is highly skilled at counting cards in Blackjack or playing Poker (yes, I can count cards in Blackjack and used to play Poker, though I wasn’t good enough at either to make a consistent profit). In my opinion, Blackjack card counting and Poker require fairly massive Bankrolls, as the variance is so high.
Highlighting this fact is in 2024 Nevada casinos made an ~$1.4B profit and astonishing 15.5% net profit margin (called “Hold” in the casino industry) on Baccarat. The casinos make this 15.5% profit margin because of idiotic playing. The “base” Banker and Player bets in Baccarat carry about a 1.1% mathematical edge to the casino. But the casinos make 15.5% because of all the alternative bets you now see on every Baccarat table. My favorite is you can make a one hand bet on whether a 3 card 9 will beat a 3 card 8. This bet pays 200 to 1. I have no idea what the true odds are, likely close to 1,000 to 1. What I do know is you go 10 shoes without ever seeing it happen. But these alternative bets carry a massive math edge to the casinos. That's why casinos make a 15.5% profit on the game instead of around 1%. FYI I only play the "base" Banker and Player bets in case you hadn't guessed.
Baccarat is now generally considered the casino industry’s number one table game profit generator, surpassing Blackjack years ago. This is primarily because the game attracts a large number of high rollers. Baccarat is also mainly an Asian game, as I would estimate about 90% of people who play are of Asian descent.
But I want to make sure any potential partner understands what we’re up against math wise. The casino industry makes an insane amount of profit from Baccarat.