While I’m sure even most recreational gamblers are aware of this fact, the one thing you must know is that Baccarat is what the casinos call a negative expectation game, as are almost 100% of casino game offerings.  In other words, Baccarat is a game of chance, not skill.  In general terms a negative expectation game of chance is one where there is nothing the player can do to put the mathematical odds of winning long-term in their favor, like with a person who is highly skilled at counting cards in Blackjack or playing Poker (yes, I can count cards in Blackjack and used to play Poker, though I wasn’t good enough at either to make a consistent profit).  In my opinion, Blackjack card counting and Poker require fairly massive Bankrolls, as the variance is so high.  

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Highlighting this fact is in 2024 Nevada casinos made an ~$1.4B profit and astonishing 15.5% net profit margin (called “Hold” in the casino industry) on Baccarat.  The casinos make this 15.5% profit margin because of idiotic playing.  The “base” Banker and Player bets in Baccarat carry about a 1.1% mathematical edge to the casino.  But the casinos make 15.5% because of all the alternative bets you now see on every Baccarat table.  My favorite is you can make a one hand bet on whether a 3 card 9 will beat a 3 card 8.  This bet pays 200 to 1.  I have no idea what the true odds are, likely close to 1,000 to 1.  What I do know is you go 10 shoes without ever seeing it happen.  But these alternative bets carry a massive math edge to the casinos.  That's why casinos make a 15.5% profit on the game instead of around 1%.  FYI I only play the "base" Banker and Player bets in case you hadn't guessed. 

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Baccarat is now generally considered the casino industry’s number one table game profit generator, surpassing Blackjack years ago.  This is primarily because the game attracts a large number of high rollers.  Baccarat is also mainly an Asian game, as I would estimate about 90% of people who play are of Asian descent. 

 

But I want to make sure any potential partner understands what we’re up against math wise.  The casino industry makes an insane amount of profit from Baccarat.